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It does, at first sight, look like a natural and uniquely British
mixture - pubs diversifying upwards and gastronomy
diversifying downwards. Mr Middleton is no longer satisfied
with pub grub but getting dressed up on a week night is too
much hassle and maybe just outside his price point.
Cultural shift is strong language however. It presumes that
behavior goes beyond a function of circumstance and
opportunity.
For example, would the gastropub survive in different
economic circumstances; consider a significant downturn -
as happened when the boom bubble burst in the late
1980s. Property prices slumped and the cost of (borrowing)
money became considerably more expensive, there were
also added pressures on employment.
In this situation, the number of Mr Middletons shrinks as
does their disposable income. On the supply side, new
gastronomic chefs face barriers to entry into the market due
to the increased cost of mortgages, negative equity and the
prospect of diminishing demand.
As with any economic cycle, it is the institutions which
survive while the small players turn over at a rapid rate. The
middle market either fails or re-invents itself.
So what of gastro pubs? To argue against the case of
economics we must ask: are Mr Middleton's tastes,
priorities and requirements changed for good, such that the
gastro pub will permanently be on his agenda? Will the
number of new, able, young and talented chefs continue to
emerge and need a low cost home?
For a genuine cultural shift to be the case we'd have to
accept that the British perception of food is moving
inexorably toward our continental neighbours.
Through boom and slump alike, the French have enjoyed
gastro style food in simple, low cost establishments for
generations. We may romantically conjecture that Mr
Middleton will cast aside the junk mail and Domino speed
dial for good, in favour of the British equivalent - The gastro
pub.
While this appears a relatively unlikely scenario, the middle
classes are considerably better informed, travelled and
educated than ever before; some time ago I bumped into an
old university friend and his wife at an airport, they were
busy feeding their four year old her breakfast - filter coffee
and Pain au Chocolat - not something they would have
experienced at the same age.
No doubt there exists a Mr Middleton somewhere, who will
pay the £3000 top up fee to fund his son through an
Economics degree and just maybe his final year
Econometrics project will be to model the market for
gastropubs.
I wonder, will the next generation of Middletons be any the
wiser?
mixture - pubs diversifying upwards and gastronomy
diversifying downwards. Mr Middleton is no longer satisfied
with pub grub but getting dressed up on a week night is too
much hassle and maybe just outside his price point.
Cultural shift is strong language however. It presumes that
behavior goes beyond a function of circumstance and
opportunity.
For example, would the gastropub survive in different
economic circumstances; consider a significant downturn -
as happened when the boom bubble burst in the late
1980s. Property prices slumped and the cost of (borrowing)
money became considerably more expensive, there were
also added pressures on employment.
In this situation, the number of Mr Middletons shrinks as
does their disposable income. On the supply side, new
gastronomic chefs face barriers to entry into the market due
to the increased cost of mortgages, negative equity and the
prospect of diminishing demand.
As with any economic cycle, it is the institutions which
survive while the small players turn over at a rapid rate. The
middle market either fails or re-invents itself.
So what of gastro pubs? To argue against the case of
economics we must ask: are Mr Middleton's tastes,
priorities and requirements changed for good, such that the
gastro pub will permanently be on his agenda? Will the
number of new, able, young and talented chefs continue to
emerge and need a low cost home?
For a genuine cultural shift to be the case we'd have to
accept that the British perception of food is moving
inexorably toward our continental neighbours.
Through boom and slump alike, the French have enjoyed
gastro style food in simple, low cost establishments for
generations. We may romantically conjecture that Mr
Middleton will cast aside the junk mail and Domino speed
dial for good, in favour of the British equivalent - The gastro
pub.
While this appears a relatively unlikely scenario, the middle
classes are considerably better informed, travelled and
educated than ever before; some time ago I bumped into an
old university friend and his wife at an airport, they were
busy feeding their four year old her breakfast - filter coffee
and Pain au Chocolat - not something they would have
experienced at the same age.
No doubt there exists a Mr Middleton somewhere, who will
pay the £3000 top up fee to fund his son through an
Economics degree and just maybe his final year
Econometrics project will be to model the market for
gastropubs.
I wonder, will the next generation of Middletons be any the
wiser?
Gastropub: Cultural Shift or Question of Economics. July
'04
In the mid 1980s I undertook an Econometrics project
into the demand for coal. Seemed a good idea at the
time.
We lived in boom times, or at least the expanding middle
classes lived in boom times; their property was soaring
in value, inflation was under control, salaries rising, the
new tertiary sector blossoming. Culturally we were work
hard, play hard kick ass American, well mid-Atlantic at
least!
For centuries economists have contested whether supply
creates its own demand or vice versa, one thing that's
always been certain; where the two marry up we see the
most stable markets.
I've seen it argued on learned foodie forums on the
internet that the gastro pub is the ushering of a new
culture in fine dining in Britain; that the demand from a
growing number for gastronomic food in simple, laid
back surroundings, at a reasonable price, has prompted
this revolution.
There's some weight to this argument. To borrow a
character from Jilly Cooper's amusing (but dated) book
Class, Mr Middleton of the middle middle classes has
considerably more disposable income that he did twenty
years ago. In fact there are now many more Mr
Middletons, they work even harder, longer hours, are
better educated and are more demanding in their
choices.
At the same time there has been widespread recognition
in the market that Mr Middleton has far less free time in
modern Britain. Supermarket shelves are stacked with
pre-prepared meals, while 30% of junk mail is from
takeaway restaurants. He is also guided by the near
blanket media coverage of chefs and food and how he
can most conveniently 'consume' in line with his lifestyle
aspirations. No doubt the current abundance and variety
of all types of restaurants found today may be attributed
to these facts.
On the supply side, aspiring chefs are faced with a tough
choice. Mr Middleton affords them a business
opportunity, however the soaring property market makes
it painfully difficult for them to set up without being slaves
to a financial master. So what is the answer? Keep
overheads and front of house costs down, keep it simple,
encourage a local market mentality - The gastropub. Hey
presto, a natural marriage of demand and supply. But are
gastro pubs the natural long term meeting place for
these buyers and sellers? Do we have a long standing
market that one might argue is symbolic of a cultural
shift?
'04
In the mid 1980s I undertook an Econometrics project
into the demand for coal. Seemed a good idea at the
time.
We lived in boom times, or at least the expanding middle
classes lived in boom times; their property was soaring
in value, inflation was under control, salaries rising, the
new tertiary sector blossoming. Culturally we were work
hard, play hard kick ass American, well mid-Atlantic at
least!
For centuries economists have contested whether supply
creates its own demand or vice versa, one thing that's
always been certain; where the two marry up we see the
most stable markets.
I've seen it argued on learned foodie forums on the
internet that the gastro pub is the ushering of a new
culture in fine dining in Britain; that the demand from a
growing number for gastronomic food in simple, laid
back surroundings, at a reasonable price, has prompted
this revolution.
There's some weight to this argument. To borrow a
character from Jilly Cooper's amusing (but dated) book
Class, Mr Middleton of the middle middle classes has
considerably more disposable income that he did twenty
years ago. In fact there are now many more Mr
Middletons, they work even harder, longer hours, are
better educated and are more demanding in their
choices.
At the same time there has been widespread recognition
in the market that Mr Middleton has far less free time in
modern Britain. Supermarket shelves are stacked with
pre-prepared meals, while 30% of junk mail is from
takeaway restaurants. He is also guided by the near
blanket media coverage of chefs and food and how he
can most conveniently 'consume' in line with his lifestyle
aspirations. No doubt the current abundance and variety
of all types of restaurants found today may be attributed
to these facts.
On the supply side, aspiring chefs are faced with a tough
choice. Mr Middleton affords them a business
opportunity, however the soaring property market makes
it painfully difficult for them to set up without being slaves
to a financial master. So what is the answer? Keep
overheads and front of house costs down, keep it simple,
encourage a local market mentality - The gastropub. Hey
presto, a natural marriage of demand and supply. But are
gastro pubs the natural long term meeting place for
these buyers and sellers? Do we have a long standing
market that one might argue is symbolic of a cultural
shift?
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